High Inflation and the Nominal Anchors of an Open Economy

A high inflation process is usually due to a real imbalance and cannot be cured without a correction of real furamenta1s. Yet it can be characterized as a quasi-stable nominal process which gets divorced from the real system in what Patinkin could call a valid classical dichotomy. This paper extends the existing seignorage model approach to multiple inflationary equilibria by rationalizing a high inflation equilibrium as well as its stability as the outcomes of sub-optimization by a 'soft' government. It considers the advantages as well as the weaknesses of using the exchange rate as the key nominal anchor in the various stages of stabilization to low (or zero) inflation. Finally the rationale for using multiple nominal anchors is also discussed. Applications of the theoretical arguments are illustrated from recent high inflation and stabilization experience.

Real versus Financial Openness under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes

A simple analytical framework is used to consider alternative exchange rate regimes and their bearing on macroeconomic management of a semi- industrial economy. The emphasis is on the implications of different degrees of capital mobility. One of the topics taken up is the conflict between the role of the real exchange rate as a signaling device for long-run resource allocation and the problem of real exchange rate appreciation accompanying the opening up of an economy to short-term capital inflow. Also discussed is the related choice of exchange rate policy as an anti-inflation device.

Import Competition and Macro Economic Adjustment under Wage-Price Rigidity

The paper analyzes the problem of short-term adjustment to a fall in the price of competing imports when thee is wage and price rigidity. This is done in terms of a two-sector model which incorporates a domestically producible import good and a semi-tradeable home good. The effect of a fall in import prices on domestic employment, prices and the balance of payments under nominal or real wage rigidity is analyzed in the various market disequilibrium regimes. The possible responses in terms of demand management and exchange rate (or tariff) policy as well as supply management are analyzed. The theory is then applied to the stagflationary environment of the 1970s within a modified framework in which the price of imported raw materials has simultaneously risen. This helps to show how the above adjustment problem crucially depends on the nature of the underlying macroeconomic environment.

Israel's Crisis and Economic Reform: A Historical Perspective

This article analyses the roots of the deep crisis that has afflicted the Israeli economy since 1973 and the attempt at economic reform and recovery since 1985. All of these are discussed against the background of the long-term evolution in Israel's structure and growth process. At the center of the analysis lie the implications of an oversized government and especially the devastating effects on growth and inflation of the large and persistent public sector deficit on top of the growing tax and public expenditure levels. The norm of "living beyond one's means" at the public sector level has also severely affected the norms of behavior of the private, household as well as business, sectors. Since 1985 there have been signs of recovery originating from the balancing of the budget and the relative stabilization of the currency. Labor and capital markets are gradually becoming more flexible and real interest rates are coming down. Even so, inflation rates are not yet down to international levels, continued budget balance is not assured and excessive wage increases have substantially diminished profit rates and investments in the business sector. Structural problems, rooted in economic mismanagement of the crisis years, are surfacing. Resumption of a sustained growth process requires persistent budget balance and a substantial additional reduction in public expenditure and tax levels. Structural reforms, only barely started, have to be persistently followed in the labor and capital markets, in the fiscal system, and in the further opening up of commodity and financial markets to competition from both home and abroad.

Theoretical Developments in the Light of Macroeconomic Policy and Empirical Research

The paper surveys the macroeconomic literature of the last decade with emphasis on the implications of the New Classical and Rational Expectations critiques for the Keynesian paradigm and the role of macro policies. This is done on the background of the main macro developments of the l970'a and 1980's as well as the specific lessons of recent high (chronic) inflation processes. The paper takes an eclectic view emphasizing a synthesis that is emerging in which the basic Keynesian view of the existence of market and price co-ordination failures as well as room for Pareto improving policy intervention are maintained. At the same time the theoretical underpinnings are undergoing substantial change mainly due to a 'rational expectations' (rather than 'new classical') reformulation. The new Theory of Economic Policy is also discussed and illustrated in terms of recent stabilization experience.

Petrodollars and the Differential Growth Performance of Industrial and Middle-Income Countries in the 1970s

The paper attempts to account for the differential growth performance of the industrial countries and the middle income developing countries in the 1970s in terms of economic theory and some international cross-section comparisons. The theory of adjustment to supply price shocks in an individual country is coupled with the world equilibrium determination of capital flows and interest rates. The supply shocks suffered by the industrial countries during the first oil shock were compounded by relative real wage rigidity and contractionary macroeconomic response.The middle-income countries, at least initially, showed greater real wage flexibility and also followed a much more expansionary policy by borrowing the equivalent of the large OPEC surplus at very low or negative real interest rates. Their faster growth in output and productivity was attained at higher current account deficits and more accelerated inflation.At the time of the second oil shock this differential strategy could no longer be pursued by many of the middle income countries as the real costof foreign borrowing as well as that of domestic labour increased substantially.

World Shocks, Macroeconomic Response, and the Productivity Puzzle (Rev)

On the basis of a comparative growth analysis of ten major industrial countries, it is shown that the productivity slowdown of the 1970s can be attributed to a combination of the energy and raw material price shocks and the contractionary macroeconomic policies that were followed in response to these shocks. For a raw material intensive sector the rise in the relative price of material inputs has lowered gross output per unit of the other complementary factors, labour and capital. For the aggregated manufacturing sector of the ten economies this explains on average about 60% of the productivity slowdown. A more disaggregated analysis for U.K. manufacturing industries is also given. On the demand side, terms of trade deterioration has reduced real income and consumption and the profit squeeze has lowered investment demand. Fear of inflation and current account deficits has imparted a further deflationary bias to aggregate demand management in most industrial countries. Depressed demand and greater output variability have hampered factor reallocation in response to the exogenous shocks. The overriding role of demand contraction, particularly in the non- manufacturing industries, is shown in a comparative analysis of the aggregate business sector and a partial view of labour productivity growth in the service industries of these economies. The industrial countries can be contrasted with the middle income developing countries where output and productivity continued to grow more evenly after 1973, at the cost of large current account deficits and higher persistent inflation. This provides further evidence that productivity growth is closely linked to macroeconomic response.